You know, I really wish he would have waited. It’s hard to resist the bug, especially when you’ve got a lot of people around you and the field seems devoid…but really, he should have waited.

I’m talking about Illinois junior Senator Barcak Obama. With just a few years in office, he has sky-rocketed to the top of the Party and is being viewed as the “new kid on the block” for the Democratic nomination for the presidency.

By all means, he’s smart, articulate, and has a bold vision for America. But at the same time, he’s got some serious hurdles to jump…and quite honestly, I don’t think the rhetoric is gonna hit the road.

And the best part is, I really would have thought Democrats would have seen it coming. A fresh face…radical ideas…a new progressive voice in the Party. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?!?!!?? Why? Because it’s HOWARD DEAN from 2003…except a Senator, a man from Illinois, and black. The worst part is that Howard Dean was actually more qualified and served more time in office than Senator Obama is.

I love my Democrats, but the analogy I use is that the rank-and-file Democrats in America are like small children with ADD – they see the new, bright shiny toy of the moment and are absolutely fixated on it. That’s the way it was in 2003, and that’s the way it is here in 2007. They want new! They want fresh.

My prediction is this: Hillary Clinton will capture the nomination…and Barack Obama will be remembered as a man who had a vision before his time. Why am I so down on Barak? Obama may be the darling of the media, but let’s take a quick look at the typical, average supporter of each candidate. The average Obama supporter might be a 20-year-old college student in California who will contribute $15 online and write about him on his Myspace Blog. The average Hillary supporter might be some 68 year-old retired school-teacher in Ohio who is on her county central committee.

Yeah…the blog posting might help, but in the Primary election that particular Obama supporter is probably going to be too busy to vote or hung over/stoned, and still doesn’t necessarily understand what a “primary” is. That Hillary supporter will have already telephoned her network, gotten in touch w/ her central committee about an endorsement, and secured her block for Hillary. She’s been voting in primaries since Truman was in office. Moral of the story: “Flash in the pan” candidates don’t get far without a solid and deep infrastructure. It didn’t work for Dean in 2004, and it won’t work for Obama in 2008.

If only he had just waited one more cycle…

PS: Even hung over, I still voted in every primary and general election since 18.🙂