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Ballots are arriving in Oregon voters’ mailboxes today. Technically, the primary is May 20th – but, in reality – it’s primary day every day until then. Every win, every loss, every gaffe, every spousal-slip-o-the-lip, becomes more than fodder for the YouTube crowd – everything is a potential game changer.

Here’s how things shape up, post-Indiana / post-North Carolina:

Obama won North Carolina. Hillary may be poised to win Indiana. The DNC has scheduled a “meeting” for May 31st. She leads in the overall popular vote. Obama leads in Elected Delegates – and in the popular vote if you delete Florida & Michigan.

Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, Obama wins the nomination. Obama has unnecessarily solidified the Democratic relationship with the African-American vote, at the expense of alienating “downscale” voters, Catholics, Jewish folks, and White voters 65 and older. All that, and we haven’t even started with Independents and disaffected Hillary supporters vowing to vote McCain or stay home come November.

Hillary has successfully set herself up to play “I told you so” when Obama loses to McCain.

McCain has many obstacles – but he also has many advantages. Among them, a wealth of respect from independents, Democrats, and Republicans who appreciate his core values and uncompromising integrity – even when political expediency would have served his short-term interests better.

—Media Lizzy